๐ Share this article A Prediction Market Participant Profited $Nearly Half a Million on Wagers on Venezuela's Political Shift. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A bettor profited close to $500,000 from wagers on the downfall of Nicolรกs Maduro immediately preceding it was officially announced, leading to inquiries about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of American actions. Sudden Shift in Predictions Wagers on Polymarket, a blockchain-based service, that Nicolรกs Maduro would be removed from office by the end of January rose in the period preceding former President Trump declared on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody. One account, which joined the platform in December and made four bets, all on the Venezuelan situation, made more than $436K from a modest bet of $32,537. It remains unclear. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Market Signals Before Public Statement Platform data shows that traders assessed the probability of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. But the odds had jumped to eleven percent by late Friday night and spiked dramatically in the first hours of Saturday, suggesting a sudden change in positions right before the official statement was made. "This particular bet has all the characteristics of a trade based on non-public details," said an industry expert. A handful of other platform users also profited tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture. Legal Questions Grows Elected officials are starting to take note. A new rule presented on recently seeks to ban government employees from participating on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market. Industry Context Forecasting platforms have become increasingly popular in the United States, with users able to wager on everything from elections to current affairs. The industry faced scrutiny under the Biden administration. However it has received a warmer welcome during the Trump presidency. Insider trading is a crime in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the forecasting industry. A company executive for another major platform said their site "has clear rules against trading on insider information of any form."